Historic Storms Slam Northern Plains

A series of significant spring storm systems have left their mark across parts of the Great Plains States through the first two weeks of April.

This is the time of year when we expect these types of storms, especially severe weather and tornadoes, but this has not been the case. Heavy snow and mid-winter like weather conditions have been the headlines as we close in on the first month of spring.

Let’s start on April 9 when a low pressure system exited the Rockies and moved across the central plains. Incredible amounts of snow fell across western South Dakota and especially in the Black Hills. At the Rapid City Regional Airport, the greatest ever recorded single snowstorm total was observed with 28.2″ falling by April 10. Downtown Rapid City recorded their second greatest total ever measured, although records date back far longer than they do at the airport. My favorite towns in the Black Hills, Deadwood and Lead, came in with 30″ and 26.4″, respectively.

Not to be outdone by their neighbors to the south, North Dakota was in the crosshairs for the next system beginning on the 13th. An incredible amount of all-time records were observed in Bismarck, which go all the way back to 1875. First, a daily record for snowfall on April 14 was set with 17.3″ falling in 24 hours. This also broke the record for snowfall on any single calendar day of the year, besting the 15.5″ that fell on March 3, 1966. Also a new record for snowfall in the month of April, with 21.5″ as of the 15th, has been set breaking the previous record of 18.7″ from 1984.

Winter storm warnings are currently in place across the Rocky Mountains north of Denver, southeast Wyoming, and extending into northwest Nebraska and southwest South Dakota. A blizzard watch has also been issued across the plains of Colorado east of Denver. This storm doesn’t look like it will bring record snowfall like the previous two storms, but totals of 6 to 12 inches are likely for many areas.

To go along with these systems, cold air has been entrenched across the northern plains states since March. Much of the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota have seen temperatures greater than 10 degrees below average for March and midway through the month of April.

Fargo, ND has yet to reach 50 degrees in 2013. The latest date they have ever recorded to reach 50 is April 17. This will surely be broken and could go for at least another 8 to 10 days.

The below average temperatures have created a very serious problem for communities stretching along the Red River, including Fargo. The snowpack has yet to melt over North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Because of this, it looks like a top-five record crest of the Red River is likely in Fargo. When warmer temperatures do arrive, flooding will certainly be a major concern. The snow-water equivalent of the snowpack ranges from 4 to 8 inches for a large portion across these areas. It looks as though a spring flood on the magnitude of the 1997 and 2009 record floods are in store.

Residents here are no strangers to floods, though. In just 7 days, one million sandbags were filled in Fargo. There has been much attention paid to the threat of significant flooding this year, and preparations will be ongoing until it comes.

Heavy Lake Effect Snow In Buffalo, NY

An intense band of lake effect snow moved into Buffalo early this morning and dropped 6-10″ in a few hours around the airport before moving further north into Niagara County.

Heavy snow fell for much of the day between Buffalo and Niagara Falls. Areas such as Grand Island, North Tonawanda, Sanborn, and South Lockport received the brunt of this storm.

From 7:30pm to 8:15pm, Grand Island received 4.0″ of snow. That’s not a typo, 4 inches in 45 minutes.

Here are snow totals reported so far for this storm;

Erie County

Grand Island – 14.6″

Kenmore – 13.7″

North Park – 12.0″

Riverside – 11.2″

Williamsville – 10.3″

Elmwood Village – 9.9″

Depew – 9.5″

Lancaster – 9.4″

Harris Hill – 9.2″

Buffalo Niagara International Airport – 9.1″

Tonawanda – 8.5″

Clarence – 8.0″

Alden – 8.0″

Akron – 5.5″

West Seneca – 4.0″

Hamburg – 3.3″

Niagara County

Sanborn – 13.0″

North Tonawanda – 10.0″

Niagara Falls Airport – 8.7″

South Lockport – 8.0″

Pendleton – 7.7″

Lockport – 6.8″

Cambria – 5.5″

Youngstown – 3.5″

I will update storm totals as they come in.

Pictures below were taken on Grand Island.

New York State Lake Effect Snow Totals

Parts of Western and Central New York were buried by as much as 2-3 feet of
lake effect snow from January 20 through January 24, 2013.
Below are reports of total snow accumulation during that period.
Information from the Buffalo, NY NWS website was used.

ALLEGANY COUNTY
   RUSHFORD               7.6   700 AM  1/24  
   WEST ALMOND            6.6   700 AM  1/24  
   ALFRED                 2.9   700 AM  1/24  
   WHITESVILLE            1.5   700 AM  1/24  

CATTARAUGUS COUNTY
   PERRYSBURG            25.0  1100 AM  1/24  
   WEST VALLEY           16.0   700 AM  1/24  
   LITTLE VALLEY         13.5   700 AM  1/24 
   FRANKLINVILLE         11.0  1100 AM  1/24
   RANDOLPH              10.0   700 AM  1/24  
   ALLEGANY               6.8   700 AM  1/24  
   OLEAN                  4.0   700 AM  1/24  

CAYUGA COUNTY
   FAIR HAVEN            36.0   700 AM  1/24 
   STERLING              35.0   700 AM  1/24

CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
   RIPLEY                26.8   700 AM  1/24  
   FORESTVILLE           20.5   700 AM  1/24  
   SINCLAIRVILLE         20.0  1100 AM  1/24
   JAMESTOWN             12.5  1100 AM  1/24  
   KENNEDY               11.1   700 AM  1/24  
   DUNKIRK                8.6   700 AM  1/24  

ERIE COUNTY 
   COLDEN                18.9  1100 AM  1/24 
   GLENWOOD              17.5   700 AM  1/24 
   BOSTON                15.5   700 AM  1/24  
   COLLINS               15.0   700 AM  1/24
   HOLLAND               14.1   700 AM  1/24  
   HAMBURG               12.2   700 AM  1/24 
   BLASDELL              11.3   700 AM  1/24  
   WALES                 11.0   700 AM  1/24  
   EAST AURORA            6.5   700 AM  1/24  
   ELMA                   5.9   700 AM  1/24   
   WEST SENECA            3.5   700 AM  1/24  
   GRAND ISLAND           3.4  1100 AM  1/24
   WILLIAMSVILLE          2.1  1100 AM  1/24  
   BUFFALO NIAGARA ARPT   2.0  1100 AM  1/24  

GENESEE COUNTY
   STAFFORD               0.5   700 AM  1/24  

JEFFERSON COUNTY
   MANNSVILLE             7.0   700 AM  1/24  
   PIERREPONT MANOR       4.0   700 AM  1/24  
   THERESA                0.3   700 AM  1/24  

LEWIS COUNTY
   OSCEOLA               19.0   700 AM  1/24  
   HIGHMARKET            10.7   700 AM  1/24  
   CONSTABLEVILLE        8.5    700 AM  1/24  

LIVINGSTON COUNTY
   DANSVILLE              2.1   700 AM  1/24  

MONROE COUNTY
   HAMLIN BEACH          11.0   700 AM  1/24  
   HILTON                 8.0   700 AM  1/24  
   PARMA CENTER           7.0   700 AM  1/24  
   ROCHESTER              4.4  1100 AM  1/24  
   ROCHESTER ARPT         3.6  1100 AM  1/24  
   NORTH CHILI            0.9   700 AM  1/24  

NIAGARA COUNTY
   NEWFANE               12.0   700 AM  1/24  
   BARKER                10.0   700 AM  1/24 
   LOCKPORT               5.1   700 AM  1/24  
   NIAGARA FALLS ARPT     5.0  1100 AM  1/24  
   YOUNGSTOWN             3.1   700 AM  1/24  
   NORTH TONAWANDA        2.8  1100 AM  1/24  
   PENDLETON              2.5   700 AM  1/24  

ORLEANS COUNTY
   LYNDONVILLE           13.0   700 AM  1/24  
   CARLTON               10.0   700 AM  1/24

OSWEGO COUNTY
   FULTON                38.4  1100 AM  1/24 
   PHOENIX               36.8  1100 AM  1/24  
   PALERMO               36.7  1100 AM  1/24 
   BOWEN CORNERS         34.0   700 AM  1/24 
   BENNETTS BRIDGE       33.0   700 AM  1/24 
   PULASKI               30.7   700 AM  1/24 
   MINETTO               26.9   700 AM  1/24  
   LACONA                24.8   700 AM  1/24  
   SANDY CREEK           18.4   700 AM  1/24  
   OSWEGO                17.3   700 AM  1/24  
   MEXICO                14.9  1100 AM  1/24  

WAYNE COUNTY
   SODUS                 12.0   700 AM  1/24 
   SODUS POINT            8.0   700 AM  1/24 
   WALWORTH               2.7   700 AM  1/24  
   PALMYRA                1.3   700 AM  1/24  

WYOMING COUNTY
   WARSAW                13.2   700 AM  1/24  
   SILVER SPRINGS         8.5   700 AM  1/24

Updated Lake Effect Snow Totals For New York State

A lake effect snow event has continued over parts of Western and Central New York since January 20, 2013. Snow bands off of Lakes Erie and Ontario have produced significant accumulations in localized areas.

Listed below is the most recent reported storm totals for counties in New York State as of Wednesday, January 23, 2013:

Cattaraugus County

Perrysburg – 24.0″

West Valley – 13.5″

Little Valley – 10.5″

Franklinville – 10.0″

Cayuga County

Sterling – 31.0″

Fair Haven – 30.0″

Chautauqua County

Ripley – 26.8″

Sinclairville – 18.0″

Kennedy – 9.9″

Dunkirk – 6.8″

Erie County

Glenwood – 15.0″

Collins – 14.0″

Colden – 14.0″

Boston – 12.5″

Hamburg – 8.7″

Blasdell – 7.8″

Wales – 7.0″

Lewis County

Osceola – 19.0″

Highmarket – 10.7″

Monroe County

Hamlin Beach – 11.0″

Hilton – 8.0″

Parma Center – 7.0″

Niagara County

Newfane – 10.0″

Barker – 8.0″

Orleans County

Carlton – 7.0″

Oswego County

Fulton – 38.0″

Palermo – 36.5″

Bowen Corners – 34.0″

Bennetts Bridge – 33.0″

Pulaski – 30.7″

Minetto – 25.9″

Lacona – 24.7″

Wayne County

Sodus – 12.0″

Sodus Point – 8.0″

Wyoming County

Warsaw – 11.7″

Silver Springs – 8.0″

Buffalo, NY Weather Forecast: Thursday, January 17

A breezy start to the morning followed by falling temperatures during the afternoon is in store for Buffalo and Western New York Thursday, January 17, 2013.

The predawn hours will feature strong west-southwest winds at 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. The temperature will be fairly steady around 32°F. Skies will be overcast with scattered flurries.

Wind speeds will decrease by 7am to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph and will quickly shift to the northwest after a cold front makes its way through the region. The temperature at this time will be 31°F.

After 7am temperatures will begin to fall into the 20’s.

By 12pm Buffalo and Niagara Falls will have a temperature of 25°F. Skies will be mostly cloudy and winds will be from the northwest around 10 mph.

At 5pm our temperature will have fallen to 23°F with considerable clouds and a northwest wind 5-10 mph.

The rest of the evening will feature variable clouds and winds from the northwest at 5-10 mph. The temperature will be 21°F at 10pm.

How Warm Will Buffalo, NY Get This Weekend?

It’s shaping up to be an extremely mild weekend for Buffalo and the Western New York area.

The high temperatures on both Saturday, January 12, and Sunday, January 13, will surely top 50°F and may even approach 60°F. This is nearly 30°F above the average high for this time of year, but is not unheard of.

There is almost always a winter “thaw” in WNY and this usually occurs sometime in January.

While it is a nice respite for WNYer’s, melting snow and ice can cause ice jams in creeks or streams that lead to localized flooding along their banks. Drains clogged by debris can also back up, partially flooding area streets and sidewalks.

Local ski resorts also take a hit, especially if their base snow depth is below average.

Temperatures will begin to fall Sunday night back towards the freezing mark and should remain there through next week.

There is also a chance for below average temperatures to invade WNY, and the rest of the country, by January 20.

A very cold air mass is expected to drop south into the country from Canada by the end of next week and bring well below average temperatures for much of the continental United States. This period of colder than normal temperatures may persist through the end of January and into February.

Buffalo, NY Weather Forecast: Sunday, January 6 2013

Sunday, January 6

2am – Light snow showers may bring a dusting of snow to the region before sunrise. A southwest wind of 10 mph will continue through the predawn hours. Temperature of 31°F.

7am – Southwest winds will be increasing to 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph possible. Temperatures will be right around 32°F. Skies will be cloudy with scattered flurries.

12pm – A breezy wind from the southwest around 20 mph at times will persist into the afternoon hours. Temperatures should make it above freezing to 36°F. Overcast skies and isolated flurries or sprinkles are possible.

2pm – A cold front will cross Western New York at this time. There will be a change in wind direction to the west then northwest at 15 mph, falling temperatures, and light snow showers for late afternoon into evening.

5pm – The cold front will have passed through the region by this time. Our temperature will be 30°F with light snow falling. Winds will have veered to the west between 10-15 mph. Minor accumulations of snow up to 1″ are possible, mainly south and east of Buffalo.

10pm – Temperatures will be near 28°F and winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph. There may still be a flurry or light snow shower in the area, especially south of Buffalo. Overnight minimum temperatures will range from 24°F on the lake plain to the upper teens in areas further away from the lakes.

Watch for slick spots on roadways from early evening through overnight.

Low Pressure Bombing Off New England Coast

A storm system currently centered over Pennsylvania is giving way and transferring it’s energy to a developing low off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

This low-pressure system is going to eventually “bomb out” off the New England coast near the Gulf of Maine this evening. “Bombing out” or “bombogenesis” is a term meteorologists use to describe when a low-pressure system rapidly intensifies.

Sea level pressure may fall as much as 24 millibars in a 12-hour period creating a very tight pressure gradient. This will result in strong winds along the northeast coast from Massachusetts to Maine tonight.

There will also be an area of heavy snow along and inland from the coast. Significant snow will fall  north and east of West Haven, Connecticut to Newport and Providence, Rhode Island, to the south and east of Worcester, Massachusetts to Boston, and along the entire coasts of New Hampshire and Maine. Total accumulations of 6-12 inches are likely in these areas by the time the storm is over.

Some light snow is even expected to fall in the New York City area where a couple of inches may accumulate.

Major Snowstorm For Buffalo To Start Wednesday Evening

Buffalo and the entire Western New York area are poised to receive their first major snowstorm this winter season.

Snow is likely to start Wednesday, December 26, during the afternoon and continue through Thursday morning, December 27.

Total snowfall accumulations may reach 6 inches or more for the entire area by Thursday morning.

The snow may become heavy Wednesday evening and continue during the night. Winds may also become strong Wednesday night as well, with gusts up to 25 mph. Temperatures will remain between 28°F and 32°F throughout this storm, so this system will not have bitter cold temperatures.

The main problem will be heavy snow Wednesday evening and into the early morning hours on Thursday which will make travel very difficult.

Here are a few plots from the GFS 6-hour precipitation accumulation forecast model for Wednesday at 1pm through 1am Thursday that highlights the significant snow that may fall during that time.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, NY for the potential of 8-15 inches of snow.

Christmas Weather – Buffalo, NY

A fresh coating to 2 inches of snow is possible Christmas Eve into Christmas day for all areas of Western New York south of Lake Ontario.

Christmas Eve Forecast – Monday, December 24

• Early morning temperatures will be near 29°F with intervals of clouds and sun. Winds will be from the south, averaging 6 mph.
• It will become cloudy during the afternoon with the temperature reaching a high of 34°F. The winds will back into the evening and increase slightly, coming from the east around 10 mph.
• At dusk the temperature will be 31°F. After 7pm and continuing through the night, light snow will fall and winds will be out of the northeast at 10 mph.

Christmas Forecast – Tuesday, December 25

• At dawn there will be light snow, a temperature of 30°F, and winds from the north at 9 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
• The snow should end before noon with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
• We will reach an afternoon high temperature of 32°F with partly sunny skies. Winds will decrease throughout the afternoon to 5 mph, veering to the northeast by 7pm.
• Temperatures will hold steady around 30°F during the night. Expect considerable clouds and a northeast wind of 6 mph.

*There is a possibility for a significant winter storm to affect all of Western New York beginning Wednesday night, December 26, and continuing through Thursday, December 27.

Stay tuned for details…